Obligatory Election Blather

Today’s election day, and it’s all anyone (including me) can talk or think about. The first exit polls are rolling in close but slightly in favor of Kerry. I’m hoping they stay that way. Kerry is not my ideal choice for President, but he is far better than Bush and if elected I think he will conduct himself adequately, if not exceptionally.

And what if the worst happens, and Bush is elected to 4 more years? I’m cautiously optimistic that a second Bush term would be more conciliatory and more pragmatic than the first. Bush has a number of problems he must resolve, specifically the deficit and the cultural divide, or his presidency will be tarnished and the modern conservative movement weakened, if not completely discredited. (Iraq and terrorism are issues that Bush seems to have gotten a pass on; I don't see how he can repair the damage, but no one seems to have noticed anything's wrong). If we are still fighting about gay marriage and facing record deficits after another 4 years of Bush, I don’t think it’s possible for the Republicans to remain in power. They know that as well as anyone. Without facing re-election, Bush could move to the center without fearing a revolt from the far right. He could make compromises that would solidify his legacy, and silence the nutjobs that hijacked the party after it was destroyed by Clinton in 1992.

Of course I could be completely wrong, and Bush could become a major reactionary. He’s not an idiot, but anyone (for example, Jimmy Carter, who is far smarter than Bush and I put together) can make strategic blunders. I don’t have any insights into Kerry, but I hope he is more thoughtful in his approach to terrorism, and more fiscally conservative than Bush. The tax cuts and resulting deficits have been reckless and politically motivated, and I hope Kerry can clean up the mess. I think Congress will remain Republican, which isn't a bad thing. Although it’s inefficient, I like the president and the congress to be pitted against one another; it makes them battle, compromise, and explain themselves more than if they’re all on the same side.

That’s my semi-formed, semi-coherent opinion on the election as it stands now. I’m keeping my fingers crossed and hoping my nasty hangover from the weekend passes enough that I can write something interesting about how I got the hangover. It was a fun weekend, but I’m still recovering. Enjoy the election, and go vote if you haven’t done it yet.